Concept map: Error slices and residual patterns
Prerequisites (two levels) and direct dependents of Error slices and residual patterns. Show everything
- 4prerequisites shown
- 1direct dependents
- 5lessons use it
Insights 42
- Read PR-AUC against its prevalence baseline and never compare it across populations with different base rates
- Do not compare R² across test sets with different target variance
- Plot residuals in time order even for models that are not forecasts
- Rank error slices by total cost, not by error rate alone
- Compare candidate and incumbent per slice before shipping an aggregate improvement
- Read the most confident wrong predictions first when debugging a classifier
- Check calibration inside each segment, because overall calibration can hide offsetting errors
- Judge a slice's error rate against sample-size control limits before calling it the problem
Projects 20
- Passenger no-show probabilities for overbooking and reconfirmation decisions
- Predicting one-year diabetes progression with an honest error estimate: nested CV on 442 patients
- Card-fraud alerts under a fixed review budget: ranking on day 1, tested on day 2
- Will this flight fill? A from-scratch numpy MLP vs gradient boosting on airline booking snapshots
- Catalogue thumbnails: a small CNN vs pixel baselines on Fashion-MNIST
- Day-ahead household load: a 1-D CNN or GRU against seasonal naive and lag regression
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