Practical insights
Situation, action, reason and boundary — one decision per card. Filter by topic, role and difficulty; search covers the full text.
- 1000published
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- 8topic families
Results
- Do not choose intermittent-demand models by MAE because it rewards forecasting zero
On a mostly-zero series, an all-zero forecast wins the MAE comparison against every model.
harddocumented fact - Do not answer a price what-if by changing the price input of a demand forecast
A manager asks what bookings would be if fares were cut 5%, and the analyst re-scores the forecasting model with lower fares.
harddocumented fact - Model spill and unconstrained demand before estimating gains from added capacity
A planner asks for passenger gains if the aircraft on a route changes from 160 to 180 seats.
hardpractitioner heuristic - Evaluate an intervention against a counterfactual forecast with control series
A loyalty campaign launched on one market, and leadership wants to know whether bookings rose because of it.
harddocumented fact - Replay intermittent-demand forecasts through a stock policy and report service and stock, not only error
Spare-parts demand is mostly zeros with occasional orders, and two methods tie on MASE.
hardpractitioner heuristic