S31 · stakeholder simulation
Executive memo on a forecast pilot
People, data and outputs in this scenario are simulated. Each stage is recorded when you commit; the reveal comes after.
- 5stages
- 35 minabout
- 0stages committed
The brief
At the synthetic airline, revenue management (RM) piloted a new demand forecast. All results below are synthetic; the commercial director's reactions are simulated.
- Backtest (rolling-origin, 2024): WAPE fell from 18.4% to 15.1% versus the current forecast.
- Pilot: for 10 weeks, 12 routes used the new forecast for fare-class availability; 12 comparable routes kept the current forecast. Routes were chosen by RM, not randomised.
- Difference-in-differences estimate of revenue per available seat: +1.8%, 95% confidence interval -0.4% to +4.0%.
- Load factor change: +0.2 percentage points, interval includes zero.
The commercial director asks for a one-page memo and one slide for the leadership meeting.
Stage 1 of 5
The slide title is the sentence most leaders will remember.
Which slide title do you choose?