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Experimentation and causality

Interview question

  • seniorlevel
  • 15 minsuggested time
  • 2Data scientist, Data analyst

A new rebooking flow should cut support calls and must not increase flight cancellations through accidental self-service cancels. The cancellation rate in control is 2.0% (hypothetical). The product owner defines "harmless" as no more than 0.2 percentage points higher. After a test with 100,000 users per arm the treatment cancellation rate is 0.05 points higher and the superiority test gives p = 0.42, so the report says "no significant difference in cancellations, safe to launch". Is that right? Design the analysis you would have run and say how many users it needed.

Tests: Non-inferiority and guardrail testing: setting a margin in advance, testing the upper confidence limit against the margin rather than testing for a difference, and sizing a test for a safety claim.

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