Business judgment

Interview question

seniorlevel
15 minsuggested time
2Data scientist, Data analyst

A marketing email campaign cost 81,000 and was sent to 450,000 customers, with 50,000 comparable customers held out at random (hypothetical figures). 1.00% of those who got the email booked within two weeks; 0.82% of the held-out group booked. Margin per booking is 60. The marketing team reports "4,500 bookings, only 18 per booking" and asks for double budget. What do you tell them?

Tests: Incrementality versus attribution, baseline demand, cost per incremental outcome, uncertainty in a holdout, and a business recommendation that includes the break-even.

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