Forecasting

Interview question

stafflevel
25 minsuggested time
3Data scientist, ML engineer, Data analyst

Three teams forecast the same quantity at different levels: network planning forecasts total weekly demand, route managers forecast their own routes, and finance consumes a budget number. This week the totals disagree: the network model says 940, the three route forecasts are 420, 310 and 270 (hypothetical units; sum 1,000). Each team trusts its own number. As the staff data scientist, how do you resolve this, and what do you put in place so it stops happening?

Tests: Hierarchical forecast coherence, bottom-up versus top-down versus reconciliation, loss measured at the decision level, and organisational design (ownership, a single number, evaluation across levels).

day 26 day 28