Forecasting

Interview question

midlevel
8 minsuggested time
2Data scientist, Data analyst

A new daily passenger-demand model has an MAE of 6.0 passengers on the latest validation week, and the dashboard says its error is "71% lower than the naive forecast" (the naive forecast being yesterday's value). The weekly pattern on this route is strong (weekends are about 60% above Tuesdays). Is the model good?

Tests: Choosing a baseline that matches the data's seasonality, computing naive and seasonal-naive errors, and expressing the comparison as a relative error.

day 23 day 16 day 25