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ML Academy

Introduced on day 3

Natural frequencies

Presenting probabilities as counts out of one concrete population (190 of 200 fraud cases are flagged) instead of as conditional percentages.

In detail

Natural frequencies keep the base rate inside the numbers, so Bayes' theorem reduces to dividing one count by another. Experiments by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995) found much higher rates of correct Bayesian reasoning with this format.